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38 comments:
Where do you stand on the AI debate? Should AI be welcomed or feared?
Colin - You've beaten me to the punch by 2 minutes! Do you mind if I do mine as well?
As regards AI, it will ultimately reduce human potential, across vast swathes of activities, but will lead to technological breakthroughs in medicine and science. As a studious type - it's stealing my pig - so I'm a naysayer!
Phillip
Is there anything unusual, interesting or nostalgic - either fact or faction - you've read, which is of personal interest to you - and might interest ( or bore!) your SDC colleagues! I'll go first.
As a teenager, I read the Thomas Covenant fantasy series. The protagonist, Covenant, repeatedly disappears from the 'real world' into a Land, which he - and the reader - is never sure is 'real', or just Covenant's unconscious - in some form or another. One chapter in 'The Illearth War' is entitled "The Rock Gardens of Maerl".
Leper Thomas Covenant & his company follow a valley path. On the slopes at the path's sides, rocks are spread, not at random, but oddly - and without any discernible pattern. Finally, as the Company reaches high ground, an astonishing sight is revealed.
The rocks depict a battered and ugly face, which is nevertheless illuminated by a cheerful, radiant smile, despite its battered, grotesque appearance.
The Company - weary and downtrodden - are elated, and uplifted, by the ugly face's radiant smile, and exchange happy glances. All except Thomas Covenant - his reaction to the sight is diametrically opposed to everyone else's.
According to Covenant, he saw exactly that smile on a face before, at the leprosarium he was admitted to. He then tells a heartbreaking story about a beautiful woman who caught leprosy, and - after her husband deserted her - her life travails, recovering and worsening, as she was admitted to & from the leprosarium (where Covenant was also a patient) - she even taught folk dancing to other patients, when her leprosy was terminal. The one constant about the woman - despite her extreme suffering - was the radiant smile she always kept for other people, even when leprosy's toll was so terrible it made her unrecognizable, and she eventually died.
Thomas Covenant, his story choking him up, declares that if he ever meets the woman's husband again, he'll ring his bloody neck! Covenant then rides off.
Lord Mhoram, the Elder statesman of the group, declares: "Ur-Lord Covenant is a prophet!"
The fact that, to Thomas Covenant, the rock garden - like a Rorschach test - is an externalization of his mind's pain, and compassion, tips the scales more towards the Land existing in Covenant's unconscious, rather than being 'real' - but this argument goes back and forth!
Phillip
Phillip, now I feel guilty that you'd prepared all that and then I jumped in first with a one-line question. As for your own question, I'll have to think about it and come back later.
Thanks, Colin! At times, I worry I monopolize the blog, with my pet interests!
Phillip
Just read what I've written - "fact or faction" - sheesh! Darn typos!
Phillip
Colin and Phillip, thanks for the topics.
The human race will use any tool given it for both good and ill. Therefore, AI will be both a boon and a nightmare.
On the positive side, it could accelerate technological development to a degree that would have once seemed miraculous. The level of technological progress over the past 1,000 years may look like nothing compared to what happens over the next 100.
My big fear is that its potential ability to produce photos, audio, and video footage will be used by political extremists to manufacture propaganda that's indistinguishable from the genuine article and leave people no longer able to know what's real and what isn't.
Phillip, I'm going to have to give some thought to answering your question.
I agree with Steve - like any other means of production, AI has to be seized by the proletariat and used against the ruling class, or they'll use it against us.
Phillip, don't get me started on boring everyone here. You'll regret it.
-sean
AI is like the fun days of radioactivity on demand.
It was all good when my dad was a kid and they could use radiation to treat pimples (beat drinking your own urine per the Roma's living around us in the 1940s), or when I was a kid in the 1960s and xray feet with new shoes on to see how they fit, etc.
Hell, I was looking at some old advertisements (in comics?) from the 1950s and one could buy their own little bit of uranium to make things glow.
Nothin compared to the joy of being able to buy your own Sten gun in the british comics I guess but... you know... fun is what you make of it.
The past few years, Charlie has much enjoyed reading two of Brit historian Adam Tooze's works on Germany from WW1 through WW 2: The Deluge and The Wages of Destruction.
Tooze is one sharp dude and he has a strong enough following that the New York magazine ran a fairly recent article called "The Cult of Adam Tooze."
Being a native German speaker helps: he is able to actually read nazi/german contemporaneous documents. And having a PhD in economics allows him to think about things in a grounded way i.e., based on what the German economy was capable of doing vs... say... focusing on tank production or parroting Albert Speer's self-serving crapola. He is able to discern root causes, economic limitations, reality itself.
Anyhow, the dude has effected Charlie immensely. I check out his speeches, presentation, etc. on Youtube. I subscribe to his weekly-ish emails (substack), etc. The man feeds my head.
Hi guys; sorry I've been absent lately; a lot going on on the homefromt.
Per today's questions:
Colin, like many I recognize the potential advantages and threats of AI. Having a science background, I find it intriguing; but as an artist it also seems problematic.
In summation, I'd prefer we'd avoided it. The threats it poses, imho, outweigh the benefits. Alas, like the nuclear genie, it's already out of the bottle.
As for Phillip's question: a good one. Always great to hear about what excites and inspires others.
A couple months ago my wife and I took a trip to New Orleans, and while there toured the National WWII Museum. Amazing, mind-stunning experience. At the gift shop, i chose a book: "The Story of World War II" by Donald L. Miller. This book is...the best history of the war I know of. It consists greatly of testimonies and tales by the soldiers, civilians, and ordinary folks who were most affected by the war. I've read numerous books about WWII, some very good. But none punched me in the head like this one has. The reader is forcefully, emphatically, and at times graphically educated about the experience and nature of warfare. Each evening's reading leaves my mind reeling...
On Phillip's question, and this relates to AI too, I once read an Isaac Asimov story set in a near-future society ruled by a computer. The society is peaceful and egalitarian but then two right-wing troublemakers start peddling their "aspiration" bullshit by encouraging the people to want more than they need. The computer reacts by eliminating the troublesome duo and the story made me consider that a benevolent but authoritarian AI might be the best kind of government, one that can't be corrupted by money or power and is guided by pure logic.
To answer my own question, the biggest threat posed by AI could be mass unemployment if AI makes millions of jobs unnecessary. But I recall reading as a kid that in the future we'd all be freed from the burden of work when AI made millions of jobs unnecessary!
My main concerns with AI is it's application for misuse.There are already issues where it's been used in a Spanish town to show young girls ( 11 -16 years old) in videos naked by using photos of their faces from their social media - just as worrying about thos was that they found this was created by boys of only 15 -16 years old!. The misuse by political activists \ conspiracy theorists etc to incorrectly put over their views leading to problems in understanding what's real and what's fake due to the sophistication of AI and stupidity of most folk. Unemployment as you note Colin, replacing (more than it is already) human contacts when making an online enquiry etc. Pluses, without doubt are exciting with it's medical applications it could help with diseases like cancer etc, engineerimg, sciences etc. It could be a wonderful time but it's misuse will be a problem.
Philips question I need to think about.
"A benevolent but authoritarian society might be the best kind of government"
Wow, Colin.
I know 'aspiration' is a bit of a meaningless buzzword when used by politicians, but I'm curious what your objection is to people who 'want more than they need'.
Presumably that doesn't include those who program this super computer? AI being of course something of a misnomer - theres no 'intelligence' there, its just massive number crunching (I suppose if intelligence is considered an emergent property, then in theory it could er... emerge at some point in a machine, but thats still science fiction).
Benevolent authoritarianism is all very well as a concept, but can you point to an actual historical example you think we should emulate?
Personally, I am not keen on neo-feudalism.
-sean
Charlie, have you read Tooze's Crashed, about the recent - and currently still ongoing - crisis of capitalism? That was an interesting read, but it didn't seem like had much in the way of solutions.
Although as a historian I suppose theres no reason he should. Thats someone else's job.
-sean
Sean, stop twisting my words - I said a "benevolent but authoritarian AI" because it would be immune to human greed and corruption and it would need to be authoritarian to protect the benefits of the egalitarian society it was ruling over from those who would inevitably have a problem with egalitarianism. It's only a sci-fi fantasy ffs and it'll never actually happen but, speaking personally, I think democracy is rather over-rated and I'd be fine living in an egalitarian society ruled by a benevolent but authoritarian AI if such a thing were possible.
As for my criticism of "aspiration" - I was actually criticising the exploitation of that word by politicians to justify our spend, spend, spend, more, more, more greedy culture. We can't go on like this indefinitely as demonstrated by the mounting crisis of climate change. Do you think it's just a coincidence that most climate change deniers are right-wing? They want to pretend climate change is fake so they can carry on abusing the environment for their own selfish benefit.
If I can expand on Colin's question...
Let's suppose there is no longer a need for work as we know it: 5 days a week, 8 hours a day (generalizing).
I can't see humans just sitting around reading comics, smoking the ganja, having sex a la orgy porgy, in lieu of work?
I can't see humans sitting around learning to play piano, paint pictures, writing poetry in lieu of work?
I can't see humans playing golf, climbing mount everest, learning to wind surf in lieu of work?
I mean, I could do that now (though my body is too beat up at 62) having realized I won't achieve some type of status through work like being the next Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, or Adam Tooze but me thinks most younger folks need to "work" for some decades before appreciating not working?
Idk... I'm sure this concept of endless leisure from birth to death has been discussed but I've not read any treatise, sci fi, etc. Just the movie The Time Machine where the underground humans blow a horn and the above ground humans, in "the garden of eden" march in (to be eaten?).
SEAN - I have not read CRASHED by TOOZE. But IIRC it was because I had recently read some books on the crash in 2008 like THE BIG SHORT and then FLASH BOYS by LEWIS roughly just before CRASHED was released and I was not in the mood, lol.
Charlie - Picard - personal development instead of wealth acquisition/work:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rh3xPatEto
Phillip
I'll try and take a look! Busy working, lol.
Idk if "personal development" is equally distributed across the population.
My experience is that only a tiny % of the population are driven, have that hyper narrow focus. They are the "greats:" all the $, all the fame, all the success in their field.
The rest of us are too broad-minded, too many interests.
The "greats" walk into a buffet and eat one thing, like mashed potatoes, and are really good at eating mashed potatoes. Very narrow focus but expert! The best! When finished they eat more mashed potatoes!
The rest of us eat a little meat, a little potato, a little soup, a little salad, a little dessert. Very well balanced but expert in nothing. When finished we go to the gym, read a comic, strum a uke, whatever... further diluting our singular pursuit of "development."
Just my observations though. No data to support it.
Phillip, more from Picard on the future...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdpGIrYP7S8
(;
Charlie, fwiw, I didn't have much difficulty spending most of my youth reading comics, painting pictures, smoking ganja and having sex instead of working.
-sean
I'm afraid I think AI is going mimic the internet and destroy things we generally quite like - cultures, trusts, economies - for the next couple of decades.
I don't see it as an old-fashioned movie threat [I rewatched 2001 last night, and if disconnecting HAL was as easy today as it was then we'd be laughing], more as yet another of those 'contemporary Industrial Revolution' moments.
I'm still pissed off with automated supermarket checkouts though, so what do I know?
I very much doubt any of the nonsense swimming around in my head would be of any interest here, but here goes...
I recently rewatched Christopher Nolan's 'The Dark Knight' and I was struck by how it mimics the storytelling Miller's 1980s book.
The comic has little short clipped scenes in tiny frames, and then when there's a big dramatic moment he opens out onto splash pages.
If you ever saw 'The Dark Knight' in IMAX, you'll remember it has tiny little clipped scenes, each dovetailing into the next in the 2.35:1 scope framing; and then for moments of visual impact it opens up into the huge crystal clear IMAX ratio.
Very interesting, and I've not seen that comparison in print anywhere.I don't know if it was intentional.
Colin, I'm just a bit sceptical about a super computer being immune from human greed and corruption. If it was genuinely intelligent, surely by definition it would have its own agenda?
I have some sympathy for the view that democracy is over-rated, but frankly I'm even less keen on the alternatives. The thing is you need some form of majority consent (even if its grudging) to run a modern society, and I don't see that being any different for an AI.
So as someone who's views and lifestyle don't seem to coincide with those of the majority I am opposed to any kind of authoritarianism. Except for when it comes to wiping out the kulaks, obviously.
-sean
Sean - Trotsky (?) resembled Barry/Terry/Gary, from the Scousers. I half expected him to start saying: "Now then - calm down, our Lenin!"
Phillip
He did have something of a 'scouse perm' in that clip, Phillip.
-sean
I don't mind automated checkouts at the supermarket, Matthew. But I do think they should pay me something for doing the job of the checkout person. At least give a bit of a discount.
-sean
Sean - Maybe it was some slick media-types, having a dig at Derek Hatton (not that he had a perm) & militant in the 80s. Unless that clip is earlier.
Phillip
Me neither. But 50 years on I am king of nothingness… Charlie
Phillip, the clip was from the mid 70s BBC drama series Fall of Eagles, about the end of the Habsburg, Hohenzollern and Romanov monarchies.
The full episodes are on YouTube if anyone's interested - the first few are a bit boring, but it gets a lot better with Patrick Stewart's turn as Lenin in episode 6.
-sean
SEAN - Do you recommend FALL OF EAGLES? Does "getting better" equate to worth a look?
Charlie - Having diverse interests & not being single-minded enough is something relatable to me, too.
Thanks, Sean - I'll add it to my list.
Phillip
Sean, I'm assuming (maybe naively?) that a super-computer would run society based on pure logic so it would decide that egalitarianism was logical rather than society's wealth being hoarded by a tiny minority which was illogical.
Charlie, yeah, Fall of Eagles is definitely worth a look. Any series that does a whole hour of prime time drama about Lenin's split with Julius Martov (only in the 70s!) is alright by me.
Don't think I'd have stuck with it if I'd started at the beginning though. Unless you're especially interested in mid-19th century Austrian royals, maybe start somewhere in the middle? Episode 8 (theres 13 in full) is a really good one, about the aftermath of the 1905 Russian revolution, and - if it works for you - leads into the first world war stuff.
The guy who played Van der Valk is good as the Kaiser!
-sean
PS Actually, I've no idea if Van der Valk was on American tv in the 70s. Apologies if that last bit didn't mean anything to you...
-sean
Barry Foster!
Phillip
Changing the subject, apparently NFTs - non-fungible tokens - are a waste of money.
www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/Sep/22/nfts-worthless-price
Who knew, eh?
Thankfully I decided not to invest in Trump digital cards!
-sean
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